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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Sept. 2, 2022
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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The yield curve rose last week particularly at longer-dated maturities as the market responded to hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve. On Monday, two-year Treasuries notched their highest levels since 2007 following Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s higher-for-longer messaging in Jackson Hole on August 26th. U.S. economic data released during the week was generally strong. Tuesday saw Consumer Confidence surprise to the upside on the back of lower energy prices. ISM Manufacturing and PMI surveys were also higher than expected.  Employment data was mixed for the week. On Friday, August unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 3.7% as more people returned to the labor force. Yet, the job market remains strong with the economy adding 315,000 jobs in August. The data release sent the probability of a 75-basis point hike in the upcoming FOMC meeting down from 70% to 55%. Oil fell over 6% last week as U.S. recession fears regained momentum and around more constructive sentiment around global supply. Russia continues to cut natural gas supply to Europe sending European leaders scrambling to deal with the deepening energy crisis. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: August Final S&P Global US Composite PMI (45.0, 44.1), August ISM Services Index (55.4, 56.7); Wednesday: September 2 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -3.7%), and July Trade Balance (-$70.3b, -$79.6b): September 3 Initial Jobless Claims (240k, 232k).

Posted on Tuesday, September 6, 2022 @ 8:50 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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