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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended August 19, 2022
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly over the course of the week on comments from the Federal Reserve, despite softness from the economy in China.  Treasury yields fell moderately on Monday as many key economic indicators in China missed forecasts and the People’s Bank of China lowered some interest rates.  Short term yields rebounded Tuesday with long term yields staying flat as investors prepared for the minutes from the Fed to be released the next day.  On Wednesday, the Fed’s minutes showed that the policy makers see the possibility of tightening more than necessary and that the federal funds rate was still below neutral, which caused yields to rise moderately, and rise significantly amongst longer durations.  After yields pulled back slightly on Thursday, they rose moderately again on Friday after Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin made comments saying that the Fed would do what is necessary to rein in inflation.  The uncertainty with regards to the central bank’s policies is reflected in the market implied probability of a 75-basis point rate hike, which ended the week at 52% after beginning the week at 49%.  Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: August Prelim. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (51.9, 52.2), July New Home Sales (580k, 590k); Wednesday: August 19 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -2.3%); Thursday: August 20 Initial Jobless Claims (255k, 250k), 2Q Second GDP Annualized QoQ (-0.9%, -0.9%); Friday: July Personal Income (0.6%, 0.6%), July Personal Spending (0.4%, 1.1%), August Final U. of Mich. Sentiment (55.3, 55.1).

Posted on Monday, August 22, 2022 @ 8:16 AM • Post Link Share: 
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