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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended August 12, 2022
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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U.S. Treasury yields ended the week marginally higher while the curve’s inversion was unchanged. After opening lower on Monday, yields traded within a narrow range early in the week on inconsequential economic news as investors anxiously waited for Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index print. Wednesday’s release showed CPI increased 8.5% year-over-year in July which came in lower the street’s expectations of 8.7%. Core CPI – a measure that strips out volatile food and energy costs – also surprised lower with a reading of 5.9%. The implied probability of a 75-basis point rate hike at the September 21st Federal Reserve meeting fell from 73% to 50% as the market began to speculate the Fed will slow its pace of financial tightening. However, Federal Reserve officials Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari were quick to remind the market that one month of lower-than expected inflation does not allow the Fed to declare victory over inflation just yet. On Thursday, markets received further relief from runaway inflation fears when data showed the Producer’s Price Index surprisingly declined 0.5% in July, coming in well below consensus expectations of +0.2%. On Friday, short-term yields jumped following the release of better-than-expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence data. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Monday: August Empire Manufacturing (5.0, 11.1); Tuesday: July Housing Starts (1,530k, 1,559k), July Industrial Production MoM (0.3%, -0.2%); Wednesday: August 12 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, 0.2%), July Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.1%, 1.0%); Thursday: August 13 Initial Jobless Claims (265k, 262k), July Existing Home Sales (4.89m, 5.12m); July Leading Index (-0.5%, -0.8%).

Posted on Monday, August 15, 2022 @ 8:52 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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