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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Feb. 25, 2022
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

Treasury yields rose significantly among shorter maturity Treasurys and moderately among longer maturity Treasurys over the course of the week as Russian forces began an assault on Ukraine. Early in the week U.S. President Joe Biden announced sanctions on Russian banks and sovereign debt and the yield curve flattened to have the lowest 2-year to 10-year spread since April 2020.  Early on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin shrugged off these sanctions and ordered military operations, which began the conflict in Ukraine. President Biden responded with additional sanctions on Russia but stopped short of any restrictions on trade with Russia for oil or natural gas, which included allowing energy payments to Russia to continue. Yields dropped significantly early on Thursday but rebounded to end the day down only a few basis points among all maturity lengths. Fears of a significant economic impact subsided on Friday as Russia agreed to Ukraine's requests for talks, and investors turned their attention to Inflation and the Federal Reserve as the chance for a double rate hike increased slightly over the course of the week. Oil increased nearly $8 intraday on Thursday, before retreating and closing the day, and then the week only up slightly. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Monday: January Prelim. Wholesale Inventories MoM (1.2%, 2.2%), February MNI Chicago PMI (62.0, 65.2); Tuesday: February Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI (57.5, 57.5), February ISM Manufacturing (58.0, 57.6); Wednesday: February 25 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -13.1%), February ADP Employment Change (350k, -301k); Thursday: February 26 Initial Jobless Claims (225k, 232k), January Factory Orders (0.5%, -0.4%); Friday: February Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (400k, 467k), February Unemployment Rate (3.9%, 4.0%).
Posted on Monday, February 28, 2022 @ 8:17 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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