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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Dec. 31, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Bond yields edged higher while the curve slightly flattened during the final trading week of the year. Muted COVID-19 deaths and less restrictive CDC guidelines following the record-setting omicron variant outbreak de-risked potential virus-related economic disruptions and helped yields rise. As of December 31st, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 deaths stood at 1,276 which is less than half of the all-time high witnessed in January 2021. Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 25th declined to 198,000 compared to an estimated 206,000. Continuing claims also surprised by falling to 1.72 million which is the lowest total since March 2020. Chicago PMI rose more than forecasted to 63.1 in December. The average Chicago PMI for 2021 of 66.8 is the second highest for a calendar year since the survey began in 1967. Oil rose $1.42 to $75.21 per barrel. Bond yields ended the year significantly higher relative to 2020 year-end while the curve flattened as U.S. economic activity continued its recovery from the pandemic and inflation proved stickier than expected entering the year. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday: December Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI (57.8, unch.), November Construction Spending MoM (0.7%, 0.2%); Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing (60.2 61.1); Wednesday: December MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -0.6%), December ADP Employment Change (360k, 534k); Thursday: November Trade Balance (-$74.1b, -$67.1b), January 1 Initial Jobless Claims (200k, 198k), November Final Durable Goods Orders (N/A, 2.5%); Friday: December Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (400k, 210k), December Unemployment Rate (4.1%, 4.2%).
Posted on Monday, January 3, 2022 @ 8:14 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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