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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Sept. 3, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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The yield curve steepened last week with shorter-dated treasury yields falling and longer-dated treasury yields finishing higher for the week. Treasury yields were mixed throughout the week as investors waited intently for Friday's jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls increased 235,000 in August, much lower than the consensus expected 733,000. Professional and business services had the largest increase of 73,000, while restaurants & bars declined 42,000 due to headwinds from the Delta variant and college-age workers returning to school. Despite the big miss in the headline number, investors found bright spots in the jobs report. The unemployment rate in August fell to 5.2%, the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic. Average hourly earnings are up 0.6% versus last month and are up 7.8% since the last pre-pandemic jobs report in February 2020. Labor participation continues to creep near pre-pandemic levels and will continue to increase as excess unemployment benefits dissipate. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming holiday-shortened week include: Wednesday: September 3 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -2.4%); Thursday: September 4 Initial Jobless Claims (340k, 340k), August 28 Continuing Claims (n/a, 2748k), September 5 Langer Consumer Comfort (n/a, 58.2); Friday: August PPI Final Demand MoM (0.6%, 1.0%), August PPI Final Demand YoY (8.2%, 7.8%), July Final Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.6%, 0.6%).
Posted on Tuesday, September 7, 2021 @ 8:10 AM • Post Link Share: 
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