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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended August 13, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury yields were little changed last week. The Consumer Price Index rose 5.4% in July compared to last year for the second month in a row, which was slightly higher than expected. The 5.4% increase in the CPI matches the highest yearly increase in inflation since August 2008. However, the CPI's one-month 0.5% increase in July cooled from June's 0.9% rate. The increase in producer prices was also higher than expected, rising 1% in July compared to the prior month. Initial jobless claims came in at 375K for the week ended August 7, which was lower than the prior week and near pandemic lows of 368K. Combined with the prior week's strong jobs report, the data suggests the labor market continues its recovery despite increasing coronavirus cases. However, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply, well below expectations, to its lowest level since 2011. The decline in sentiment reflected concerns about rising prices and the delta variant's potential impact on the economy. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday: August Empire Manufacturing (28.0, 43.0); Tuesday: July Retail Sales Advance MoM (-0.2%, 0.6%), July Industrial Production MoM (0.5%, 0.4%); Wednesday: August 13 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 2.8%), July Housing Starts (1600k, 1643k); Thursday: August 14 Initial Jobless Claims (360k, 375k), July Leading Index (0.7%, 0.7%).
Posted on Monday, August 16, 2021 @ 7:58 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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