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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended July 23, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
Treasury yields were down moderately among medium term bonds but otherwise unchanged as investors weighed the impact of rising COVID-19 cases on the economy. On Monday, yields dropped significantly as the 10-year yield hit its lowest level since February as concern over the Delta variant and the effect it would have on reopening economies caused investors to seek the perceived safety of Treasurys. Yields rebounded moderately on Tuesday and again on Wednesday as investors fears over the Delta variant waned. The decline in Treasury yields for the last week has shown that investors may not believe that inflation is the biggest problem facing the U.S. economy and instead are worried about slowing growth. Even though Federal Reserve officials have signaled that they will hold off raising interest rates until after inflation climbed above their 2% target rate, eroding job growth has shown investors that the economy may not run as fast as anticipated. On Thursday, yields edged lower as initial jobless claims of 419k were higher than analyst expectations of 350k, which gave legitimacy to that concern. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday: June New Home Sales (800k, 769k); Tuesday: June Prelim. Durable Goods Orders (2.1%, 2.3%), July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (124.1, 127.3); Wednesday: July 23 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -4.0%), July Prelim. Wholesale Inventories MoM (1.2%, 1.3%), July 28 FOMC Rate Decision Upper Bound (0.25%, 0.25%); Thursday: July 24 Initial Jobless Claims (380k, 419k), 2Q Advance GDP Annualized QoQ (8.5%, 6.4%); Friday: June Personal Income (-0.5%, -2.0%), June Personal Spending (0.7%, 0.0%), July MNI Chicago PMI (63.0, 66.1), July Final U. of Mich. Sentiment (80.8, 80.8).
Posted on Monday, July 26, 2021 @ 8:21 AM • Post Link Share: 
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