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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended June 4, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
U.S. Treasury bond yields were mixed last week. Treasury yields on the short end of the curve finished higher, while longer-term maturities finished lower during holiday-shortened week. Earlier in the week, the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Non-Manufacturing Indexes both beat consensus expectations. Most notably, manufacturing broadly expanded in May, growing slightly faster than in April. The week wrapped up with longer-dated Treasury yields falling as investors digested a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls increased 559,000 in May, well short of the consensus expectation of 675,000. Despite missing the headline number, other indications point to the continued recovery of the labor market. Nearly half the states have cut overly generous jobless benefits, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% in May versus 6.1% in April, and average hourly earnings are up 2.0% versus a year ago. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: May NFIB Small Business Optimism (100.9, 99.8), April Trade Balance (-$68.6b, -$74.4b); Wednesday: June 4 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -4.0%), April Final Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.8%, 0.8%); Thursday: May CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.8%), May CPI YoY (4.7%, 4.2%), June 5 Initial Jobless Claims (370k, 385k), May 29 Continuing Claims (n/a, 3771k), May Monthly Budget Statement (-$160.0b, -$225.6b); Friday: June Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment (84.0, 82.9).
Posted on Monday, June 7, 2021 @ 8:13 AM • Post Link Share: 
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