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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended June 25, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
Treasury yields climbed significantly over the course of the week on increased inflation expectations and Federal Reserve speculation. Region Fed Presidents James Bullard and Rob Kaplan both said on Monday they expect inflation next year to be above the Fed's target. Investors were already speculating that the Fed may be more likely to end pandemic era policies sooner and these comments enforced the believe that rate hikes may come as early as late 2022.  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continued to give a very patient tune in congressional testimony on Tuesday, saying that one needs to be very humble about drawing signals for the economy from "such an unusual setting of reopening the economy" and maintained the belief that inflation pressures are transitory. On Wednesday, Regional Fed President Raphael Bostic joined Bullard in projecting the first rate hike to be in late 2022.  President Biden and a bipartisan group of senators on Thursday announced the framework for a negotiated infrastructure deal of roughly $1 trillion. Treasury yields jumped again on Friday as the personal-consumption expenditures report climbed at an annualized rate of 3.4%, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: June Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (118.8, 117.2); Wednesday: June 25 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, 2.1%), June ADP Employment Change (510k, 978k), June MNI Chicago PMI (69.9, 75.2); Thursday: June 26 Initial Jobless Claims (380k, 411k), June Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI (62.6, 62.6), May Construction Spending (0.5%, 0.2%), June ISM Manufacturing (61.1, 61.2); Friday: June Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (690k, 559k), June Unemployment Rate (5.7%, 5.8%), May Trade Balance (-$71.0b, -$68.9b), May Factory Orders (1.3%, -0.6%), May Final Durable Goods Orders (n/a, 2.3%).
Posted on Monday, June 28, 2021 @ 9:01 AM • Post Link Share: 
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