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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended June 18, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
The Federal Reserve was once again in focus last week and they held rates at 0%, as expected. Interestingly, the "dot plots" showed officials expected two rate increases by the end of 2023. The Fed increased its expectations for inflation, and 13 of 18 officials favored at least one rate increase by the end of 2023, and 11 of 18 forecasted 2 hikes. However, regarding asset purchases, the Fed noted that they continue to expect asset purchases to be held at a $120 billion monthly rate until "substantial further progress" had been achieved with regard to inflation and employment. General expectations by the market are that tapering occurs in advance of rate increases, but the Chairman, Mr. Powell, noted that no indications of when to expect tapering were to be provided currently. Last Tuesday was a firecracker of economic data as Industrial Production was seen increasing 0.8% in May, The Producer Price Index increased 0.8% in May, but Retail Sales were found declining 1.3% for the prior month. Last Wednesday's housing starts underwhelmed relative to consensus but showed an increase of 3.6% in May. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: May Existing Home Sales (5.71M, 5.85M); Wednesday: June 18 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 4.2%), June preliminary Market US Manufacturing PMI (61.5, 62.1), May New Home Sales (870K, 863K); Thursday: June 19 Initial Jobless Claims (380K, 412K), May preliminary Wholesale Inventories (0.8%, unch.) May preliminary Durable Goods Orders (3.0%, -1.3%), GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q (6.4%, unch.), May Personal Income (-2.6%, -13.1%) and Personal Spending (0.4%, 0.5%).
Posted on Monday, June 21, 2021 @ 8:11 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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