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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended June 11, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

Treasury yields fell last week on the longer end of the yield curve, while economic data released last week pointed to a continued recovery in the labor market. Initial jobless claims reached a pandemic low of 376,000, while nearly 1 million new job openings in April pushed job openings to a record 9.3 million as employers continue to face hiring challenges. Inflation data released last week showed the Consumer Price Index rose faster than expected in May, rising 5% compared to last year. It was the highest yearly increase since August 2008. Rising used-car prices accounted for about a third of the increase. Despite quickly increasing consumer prices, the 10-year Treasury yield fell last week by the most since June of last year, partly based on the Fed's view that rising inflation is temporary and that it doesn't plan to move off its accommodative stance in the near term. The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: May Retail Sales Advance MoM (-0.7%, 0.0%), May Industrial Production MoM (0.6%, 0.7%), May PPI Final Demand MoM (0.5%, 0.6%), June Empire Manufacturing (22.0, 24.3); Wednesday: June 16 FOMC Rate Decision – Upper Bound (0.25%, 0.25%), June 11 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -3.1%), May Housing Starts (1640k, 1569k); Thursday: June 12 Initial Jobless Claims (360k, 376k), May Leading Index (1.3%, 1.6%).
Posted on Monday, June 14, 2021 @ 7:59 AM • Post Link Share: 
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