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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended May 14, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Longer-term Treasury yields climbed last week as inflation data came in higher than expected. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in April over the prior month and 4.2% in the last year, which was the highest year-over-year increase since September 2008. Higher used-car prices accounted for more than a third of the increase, rising 10% in April over the prior month, which was the largest one-month increase on record dating back to 1953. The Producer Price Index also topped expectations as supply bottlenecks and materials shortages contributed to an increase in production costs. Higher inflation has weighed on consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which came in well below even the lowest estimates with consumers worried about higher prices for things like homes, cars, and household durables. Initial jobless claims reached a new pandemic low of 473,000, making significant progress from the high of over 6 million, while job openings in the U.S. reached a record of over 8 million in March as the economy reopens but businesses face challenges filling open positions. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday: May Empire Manufacturing (23.7, 26.3); Tuesday: April Housing Starts (1,703k, 1,739k); Wednesday: May 14 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 2.1%); Thursday: May 15 Initial Jobless Claims (460k, 473k), April Leading Index (1.3%, 1.3%); Friday: May Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (60.2, 60.5), April Existing Home Sales (6.08m, 6.01m).
Posted on Monday, May 17, 2021 @ 8:12 AM • Post Link Share: 
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