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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended March 26, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury yields dropped moderately over the course of the week on renewed lockdown fears in Europe and testimony from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields began the week dropping significantly on Monday and Tuesday, as Fed Chairman Powell confirmed the Fed's commitment to loose monetary policy, insisting that the he does not believe that a surge in inflation this year will be persistent or large. Powell believes that the Federal Reserve has the tools necessary to deal with higher inflation. Yields continued to slide on Wednesday as Germany extended its lockdown order to April 18th, causing investors to seek the perceived safety of Treasury bonds. On Thursday, new unemployment claims fell to 684,000, below consensus expectations and below 700,000 for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. This led to little demand for Thursday's 7-year Treasury auction. Treasury yields edge up on Friday on increased inflation fears but still ended the week down moderately. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: March Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (96.1, 91.3); Wednesday: March 26 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -2.5%). March ADP Employment Change (550k, 117k), March MNI Chicago PMI (60.0, 59.5); Thursday: March 27 Initial Jobless Claims (680k, 684k), March Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI (59.0, 59.0), February Construction Spending MoM (-0.9%, 1.7%), March ISM Manufacturing (61.0, 60.8); Friday: March Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (630k, 379k), March Unemployment Rate (6.0%, 6.2%).
Posted on Monday, March 29, 2021 @ 8:08 AM • Post Link Share: 
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