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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended March 19, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury yields continued their rise even as the Federal Reserve met and committed to using its tools to keep monetary policy accommodative. In the FOMC statement it noted that inflation continues to be under 2 percent and that it expects to maintain an accommodative policy until inflation is at 2 percent over the longer run and maximum employment is achieved. Going into the meeting market participants were looking for any change in stance particularly as to the forecasted expectations for forward rate changes – but the officials continued to project interest rates remaining near-zero into 2023, at least. For last week's economic data, on Tuesday February Retail Sales were seen falling 3.0% but were up 6.3% versus the prior year. Autos led the decline. Also on last Tuesday the Industrial Production data was released and also registered a decline. It fell by 2.2% for February with the major winter polar event sweeping the country depressing manufacturing and capacity utilization. Last Wednesday, housing starts were registered declining 10.3% in February. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday: February Existing Home Sales (6.50M, 6.69M); Tuesday: February New Home Sales (875K, 923K); Wednesday: March 19 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -2.2%), February preliminary Durable Goods Orders (0.8%, 3.4%) and March preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (59.5, 58.6); Thursday: March 20 Initial Jobless Claims (733K, 770K) and 4Q GDP Annualized QoQ (4.1%, 4.1%); Friday: February MoM preliminary Wholesale Inventories (N/A, 1.3%), February Personal Income (-7.1%, 10.0%), February Personal Spending (-0.8%, 2.4% and University of Michigan March final Sentiment (83.6, 83.0).
Posted on Monday, March 22, 2021 @ 8:09 AM • Post Link Share: 
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