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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Feb. 5, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Last week, the steepening yield curve trend continued with shorter-dated US Treasury bond yields down and longer-dated US Treasury bond yields higher. The two-year Treasury note yield matched record lows on Friday, while the 10-year US Treasury bond yield hit year-to-date highs. Monday's ISM Manufacturing Index survey missed the consensus expectation but signaled manufacturing expansion. Most notably, the manufacturing employment index and supplier deliveries increased. Tuesday's ISM Non-Manufacturing Index survey came in stronger than expected, while signaling further expansion. New orders hit a six-month high and the non-manufacturing employment index increased. Headline jobs data came in lighter than expected on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls increased 49,000 in January, well short of the consensus expectation of 105,000 for the month. On a positive note, unemployment fell 0.4% in January to 6.3% and average weekly hours rose to a record high. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: January NFIB Small Business Optimism (97.5, 95.9); Wednesday: February 5 MBA Mortgage Application (N/A, 8.1%), January CPI MoM (0.3%, 0.4%), January CPI YoY (1.5%, 1.4%), December Final Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.1%, 0.1%), January Monthly Budget Statement (-$300.0b, -$143.6b); Thursday: February 6 Initial Jobless Claims (753k, 779k), January 30 Continuing Claims ( 4410k, 4592k); Friday: February Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment (80.9, 79.0).
Posted on Monday, February 8, 2021 @ 8:07 AM • Post Link Share: 
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