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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Feb. 12, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury yields moved slightly higher last week, while the 30-year Treasury yielded more than 2% for the first time since February 2020. The moves higher came as the market continues to price in the prospect of more government stimulus and higher economic growth as COVID-19 vaccines rollout. Inflation expectations also moved higher as the 10-year breakeven rate, or the difference between the yield on a nominal bond and one indexed to inflation, reached its highest level since 2014 last week. In the high yield market, the average yield on U.S. junk bonds fell below 4% for the first time, measured by the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index. And in economic news, initial jobless claims were 793,000 in the week ended February 6 and have steadily improved from a winter peak of 927,000 last month, suggesting the labor market might be turning a corner as certain parts of the economy start to reopen. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: February Empire Manufacturing (6.3, 3.5); Wednesday: February 12 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -4.1%), January Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.9%, -0.7%), January Industrial Production MoM (0.4%, 1.6%), January PPI Final Demand MoM (0.4%, 0.3%); Thursday: February 13 Initial Jobless Claims (765k, 793k), January Housing Starts (1,658k, 1,669k); Friday: February Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (58.5, 59.2), January Existing Home Sales (6.63m, 6.76m).
Posted on Tuesday, February 16, 2021 @ 8:09 AM • Post Link Share: 
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