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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Nov. 19, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Increasing fears of further COVID lockdowns and remarks by two Federal Reserve officials last Friday resulted in a flatter Treasury curve from lower longer dated yields. Both Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and Fed Governor Christopher Waller voiced concerns that continually high inflation may recommend the Federal Reserve consider accelerating the tapering of asset purchases. Oil fell meaningfully last week, and particularly on Friday, as crude oil prices shuddered from the dual effect of governments threatening to release crude oil reserves from strategic petroleum reserves as well as from Austria being the first western European country to re-impose widespread lockdowns. Last Tuesday had two meaningful economic data releases in the October Industrial Production and Retail Sales reports. Both were up more than consensus expectations. The former reported strength in all categories but particularly auto production, which rose 11%. While inflation was partly responsible for an increase in Retail Sales, sales growth was widespread across the thirteen retail categories, led by autos and gas stations. Prior week's Housing Starts reported slightly below expectations but were still up 0.4% from a year ago. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week holiday-shortened week include Monday: October Existing Home Sales (6.18m, 6.29m); Tuesday: November preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (59.1, 58.4); Wednesday: November 19 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -2.8%), November 20 Initial Jobless Claims (260k, 268k), October preliminary Wholesale Inventories (1.1%, 1.4%), 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ (2.2%, 2.0%), October preliminary Durable Goods Orders (0.2%, -0.3%), October Personal Income (0.2%, -1.0%), October Personal Spending (1.0%, 0.6%), November Final University of Michigan Sentiment (66.8, unch.) and October New Home Sales (800k, unch.)
Posted on Monday, November 22, 2021 @ 8:37 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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