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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Oct. 1, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
U.S. Treasury bond yields were mixed last week with yield curve steepening as the long end of the curve held on to gains. Treasury yields increased across the yield curve on Monday and Tuesday before dropping for the rest of the week as the equity market selloff led to investors seeking safe haven investments, such as treasury bonds. On Thursday, second quarter GDP was revised up from an annual rate of 6.6% to 6.7%. Consumer spending and business investment were the largest positive contributors, while inventories were the weakest component. On Friday, personal income and consumption spending data showed the growth in personal consumption outpaced the growth in personal income during the month of August. Personal Income is up 6.1% in the past year, whereas spending has grown 11.6%. Personal income growth was led by increases in private sector wages and salaries, which is 6.7% above pre-COVID levels. The strength in private sector wages and salaries will help offset the early September expiration of two pandemic-related additional unemployment benefits programs. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday: August Factory Orders (1.0%, 0.4%), August Final Durable Goods Orders (1.8%, 1.8%); Tuesday: August Trade Balance (-$70.6B, -$70.1B), September Final Markit US Services PMI (54.4, 54.4), September Final Markit US Composite PMI (N/A, 54.4), September ISM Services Index (59.8, 61.7); Wednesday: October 1 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -1.1%), September ADP Employment Change (450K, 374K); Thursday: October 2 Initial Jobless Claims (350K, 362K), September 25 Continuing Claims (2775K, 2802K); Friday: September Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (470K, 235K), September Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (25K, 37K), September Unemployment Rate (5.1%, 5.2%), August Final Wholesale Inventories MoM (1.2%, 1.2%).
Posted on Monday, October 4, 2021 @ 8:28 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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