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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Jan. 8, 2021
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Longer-term Treasury yields began the year moving significantly higher last week, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising above 1% for the first time since March. Yields rose after Democrats won control of the Senate, winning both runoff elections in Georgia, as the market priced in more economic stimulus and higher inflation. The 10-year breakeven rate, which gauges the market's expectation of inflation, topped 2% for the first time since 2018 last week. The jobs report released on Friday showed the U.S. lost 140,000 jobs in December, which broke a streak of 7 months of job growth since the economy lost over 20 million jobs in April. Restaurants and bars bore the brunt of the decline, losing 372,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate remained at 6.7%, which remains elevated from pre-pandemic levels but is still a significant recovery from the 14.8% unemployment rate in April. Meanwhile, manufacturing finished the year strongly with the ISM Manufacturing Index beating expectations and registering its highest level since 2018. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Wednesday: December CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.2%), January 8 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 1.7%); Thursday: January 9 Initial Jobless Claims (785k, 787k); Friday: January Preliminary U. of Mich. Sentiment (80.0, 80.7), December Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.0%, -1.1%), December Industrial Production MoM (0.4%, 0.4%), December PPI Final Demand MoM (0.4%, 0.1%), January Empire Manufacturing (5.7, 4.9).
Posted on Monday, January 11, 2021 @ 8:35 AM • Post Link Share: 
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