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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended June 19, 2020
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Last week saw Treasury yields decline broadly as investors sought safe assets amid mounting concerns around the economic re-opening. In focus last week was U.S. money-fund assets. While over $100 billion has been pulled from money-funds over the prior month, money-fund assets are still nearly 1$ Trillion above pre-COVID levels, indicating investors have lingering economic concerns. Last Tuesday's Industrial production report showed an increase of 1.4% in May, less than expected. Certain economic sectors were very volatile. Auto production witnessed a 121% month over month increase but was still down 62.8% versus the prior year. Oil and gas pulled the mining sector down as oil prices remain subdued around $40/bbl WTI and the industry has idled many rigs. Also, on Tuesday, Retail Sales were reported at +17.7% in May. After the rise retail sales are now down 7.9% from February but the strong report is indicative of a more eager consumer. The Wednesday Housing Start report showed a 4.3% increase in May nearly completely driven by multi-unit starts. More importantly, new building permits rose 14.4% for the month indicating more optimism about future construction. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday: May Existing Home Sales (3.99M, 4.33M); Tuesday: May New Home Sales (630K, 623K); Wednesday: June 19 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 8.0%); Thursday: June 20 Initial Jobless Claims (1,300K, 1,508K), May preliminary Wholesale Inventories (0.4%, 0.3%, May preliminary Durable Goods Orders (10.3%, -17.7%) 1Q annualized QoQ GDP (-5.0%, -5.0%) and Friday: May Personal Income (-6.0%, 10.5%), May Personal Spending (8.8%, -13.6%) and June final University of Michigan Sentiment (78.9, unch.).
Posted on Monday, June 22, 2020 @ 8:21 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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