US Economy and Credit Markets Ended May 8, 2020

Bob Carey
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US Economy and Credit Markets Ended May 8, 2020

Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

The April jobs report released last week provided one of the clearest assessments yet of the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The report showed the U.S. economy lost a staggering 20.5 million jobs in April and the unemployment rate rose to a record 14.7%, based on data available back to January 1948. For perspective, during the 113-month streak of job creation from October 2010 to February 2020 the economy added about 22.1 million jobs. The 10.3 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate from March to April was also the largest on record, bringing the unemployment rate from its lowest level since 1969 as recently as February 2020 to a record high in just two months. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose following the report that, while unprecedented, was slightly better than expected. Initial jobless claims in the week ending May 2 were 3.2 million, which were still significantly higher than initial jobless claims before mid-March but marked the 5th consecutive week of declines. It was also the lowest number of initial jobless claims since the COVID-19 pandemic started impacting the data in late March. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: April CPI MoM (-0.7%, -0.4%); Wednesday: May 8 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 0.1%), April PPI Final Demand MoM (-0.5%, -0.2%); Thursday: May 9 Initial Jobless Claims (2,500k, 3,169k); Friday: May Preliminary U. of Mich. Sentiment (68.0, 71.8), April Retail Sales Advance MoM (-11.3%, -8.7%), April Industrial Production MoM (-11.6%, -5.4%), May Empire Manufacturing (-60.0, -78.2).

Posted on Monday, May 11, 2020 @ 8:28 AM • Post Link	Share:
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.

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