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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Feb. 7, 2020
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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U.S. Treasury Bond yields finished the week higher as Coronavirus fears cooled down. The ISM Manufacturing Index data was reported on Monday. The index, which is a survey, rose to 50.9 from 47.2 in December. The January data easily beat the consensus estimate of 48.5. The data above 50 indicated an expansion for the first time since July of 2019. The higher level was largely due to the increase in the production index and the increase in the new orders index. Later in the week the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index beat the consensus estimate of 55.1 due to the continued strength in the business activity index and the new orders index. The employment index portion of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell 1.7 points. Friday's jobs report dismissed concerns from the declining employment index reported early in the week. Nonfarm payrolls rose 225,000 in January, well above the consensus estimate of 165,000. Labor force participation hit the highest level since 2013 and average hourly wages are up 3.1% from this time last year. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: January NFIB Small Business Optimism (103.3, 102.7); Wednesday: February 7 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 5.0%), January Monthly Budget Statement (-$10.0B, -$13.3B); Thursday: January CPI MoM (0.2%, 0.2%), January CPI YoY (2.4%, 2.3%), February 8 Initial Jobless Claims (211K, 202K), February 1 Continuing Claims (1743K, 1751K); Friday: January Import Price Index MoM (-0.2%, 0.3%), January Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.3%, 0.3%), January Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (0.3%, 0.7%), January Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (0.3%, 0.5%), January Capacity Utilization (76.8%, 77.0%), February Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment (99.3, 99.8).
Posted on Monday, February 10, 2020 @ 8:14 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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