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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Oct. 23, 2020
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury yields rose materially over the course of the week as talks for a stimulus package before the election continued. Early in the week there was more optimism that a deal would be struck as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi dropped the Tuesday deadline for a bill and said there remained a window to get it done. This optimism was at a peak on Wednesday and Thursday as Pelosi said the sides had found common ground and that they were "just about there." However, a deal was not reached on Friday as both sides seemed to dig in, but still expected it to be completed in a few days. Treasury yields also rose as investors are expecting Joe Biden to win the Presidential election and the democrats to possibly have more control in Congress, leading to more government spending and higher inflation pressures. On Thursday, the job market showed more strength as initial jobless claims fell to 787k compared to expectations of 870k and continuing claims fell to 8373k compared to expectations of 9625k.  Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Monday: September New Home Sales (1023k, 1011k); Tuesday: September Prelim. Durable Goods Orders (0.5%, 0.5%), October Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (101.6, 101.8); Wednesday: October 23 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -0.6%), September Prelim. Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.4%, 0.4%); Thursday: October 24 Initial Jobless Claims (783k, 787k), 3Q Annualized GDP QoQ (31.8%, -31.4%); Friday: September Personal Income (0.2%, -2.7%), September Personal Spending (1.0%, 1.0%), October MNI Chicago PMI (58.0, 62.4), October Final U. of Mich. Sentiment (81.2, 81.2).
Posted on Monday, October 26, 2020 @ 8:03 AM • Post Link Share: 
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