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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Aug 30, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Short-term U.S. Treasury yields increased last week. Conversely, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields pulled back. For the month of August, the two-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped by the largest monthly amount since November of 2008, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped below 2.0% for the first time. Demand for government paper remains elevated as trade and tariff concerns along with geopolitical tensions and challenging global growth prospects weigh on investors. On Thursday, revised real GDP data for the United States economy came in at 2.0% versus 2.1% previous, in-line with consensus expectations. The revised GDP mix indicates core GDP was adjusted up from an annual rate of 3.2% to 3.5%. Personal consumption, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, was revised up to an annual rate of 4.7%, the fastest pace since the end of 2014. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: August Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI (50.0, 49.9), August ISM Manufacturing (51.2, 51.2), July Construction Spending MoM ( 0.3%, -1.3%); Wednesday: August 30 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -6.2%), July Trade Balance (-$53.5b, -$55.2b); Thursday: August ADP Employment Change (145k, 156k), August 31 Initial Jobless Claims (215k, 215k), August 24 Continuing Claims (1688k, 1698k), July Factory Orders (1.0%, 0.6%), July Final Durable Goods Orders (n/a, 2.1%), August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (54.0, 53.7); Friday: August Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 164k, 164k), August Unemployment Rate (3.7%, 3.7%). 
Posted on Tuesday, September 3, 2019 @ 8:02 AM • Post Link Share: 
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