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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Week Ended July 19, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
Even when not meeting the Federal Reserve is managing to move markets. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's President John Williams commented that it is beneficial for monetary policy to respond quickly when there is need for stimulus as a result of slowing economic conditions. These comments were appropriately regarded as dovish by the markets but on Friday, the Central Bank clarified the comments saying that they were academic in nature and not specific to the upcoming July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As a result, on Friday, short-end interest rates marched higher as markets priced in the increased likelihood of a 25-bps cut. On a relative basis, the US monetary policy has been restrictive when contrasted with generally loose global monetary conditions. Industrial Production was reported as unchanged for June last Tuesday, but overall capacity utilization declined slightly. Retail sales were reported as increasing 0.4% in June which was ahead of expectations. Despite some observed weakness in pockets of the economy, the consumer remains strong as unemployment is at relative lows. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include Tuesday: June existing home sales (5.34M, unch.); Wednesday: July 19 MBA mortgage applications (N/A, -1.1%), July preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (51.0, 50.6) and June new home sales (658K, 626K); Thursday: June preliminary Wholesale Inventories (0.4%, 0.4%), June preliminary Durable Goods Orders (0.7%, -1.3%) and July 20 Initial Jobless Claims (217K, 216K); Friday: 2Q annualized QoQ GDP (1.8%, 3.1%).
Posted on Monday, July 22, 2019 @ 8:51 AM • Post Link Share: 
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