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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended May 31, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury Prices rose significantly over the week on increased trade war fears. On Monday, President Trump said that the U.S. was not ready to make a deal with China, following his trip to Japan and said that tariffs on China "could go up very, very substantially. China responded Tuesday with reports that they could scale back exports of rare earth materials to the U.S. and China's vice foreign minister said that instigating trade wars was "naked economic terrorism. Trade fears escalated on Friday when Trump turned his attention to Mexico with a threat of tariffs if they do not help the U.S. curb illegal immigration along the U.S. Southern border. The plan called for a 5% tariff on Mexican imports on June 10, rising incrementally to 25% by October 1st if Mexico failed to act. This has also led investors to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner as the market implied probably of an interest rate cut at the July meeting rose from 17% to 48% this week. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Oil dropped 9% over the course of the week. Monday: May Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI (50.6, 50.6), May ISM Manufacturing (53.0, 52.8), April Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, -0.9%); Tuesday: April Factory Orders (-0.9%, 1.9%), April Final Durable Goods Orders (n/a, -2.1%); Wednesday: May 31 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -3.3%), May ADP Employment Change (185k, 275k)' Thursday: Jun 1 Initial Jobless Claims (215k, 215k), April Trade Balance (-$50.5b, $50.0b); Friday: May Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (180k, 263k), May Unemployment Rate (3.6%, 3.6%), April Final Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.7%, 0.7%).
Posted on Monday, June 3, 2019 @ 7:59 AM • Post Link Share: 
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