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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended April 5, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

Prices on U.S. Treasurys fell early in the week, pushing yields higher, on the back of strong United States and Chinese economic data. Sentiment was positive on Monday as the Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index rose above 50 (levels higher than 50 signal expansion) in March and, in United States, the ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 55.3 in March, beating the consensus expected 54.5. Growth in the manufacturing sector bounced back in March after missing estimates in February. The ISM non-manufacturing index missed consensus expectations for March, but still came in at a strong 56.1, as expansion remains on-track. Nonfarm payrolls rose 196,000 in March, comfortably beating the consensus expected by 19,000. Including revisions to January/February, nonfarm payrolls increased 210,000. Though average hourly earnings missed consensus expectations by 0.2%, total wages grew by an impressive 0.6% in March, pushing total wages up 5.2% over the past year. The strong economic data throughout the week dampened the looming recession narrative. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Monday: February Factory Orders (-0.5%, 0.1%), February Final Durable Goods Orders (N/A,-1.6%); Tuesday: March NFIB Small Business Optimism (101.2, 101.7); Wednesday: April 5 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 18.6%), March CPI MoM (0.3%, 0.2%), March CPI YoY (1.8%, 1.5%), and March Monthly Budget Statement (-$212.8B, -$234.0B); Thursday: March PPI Final Demand MoM (0.3%, 0.1%), March PPI Final Demand YoY (1.9%, 1.9%), April 6 Initial Jobless Claims (210K, 202K), and March 30 Continuing Claims (N/A, 1717K); Friday: April Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment (98.4, 98.4).
Posted on Monday, April 8, 2019 @ 8:00 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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