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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended March 22, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

Treasury prices rose significantly over the course of the week on a more dovish Federal Reserve announcement and the first inverted yield curve since 2007. On Wednesday, the Fed kept rates unchanged and lowered its rate hike projection for 2019 from two to zero while announcing that the balance sheet run off would end in September. The Fed also lowered forecasted GDP growth from 2.3% to 2.1% and forecasted inflation from 1.9% to 1.8%. Recession worries heightened on Friday when the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below the 3-month Treasury yield for the first time in over a decade, which is seen as an indicator of a possible recession in the near future. Investors also fear slowing global growth as the German manufacturing sector contracted further with the IHS Markit's purchasing managers index falling well below expectations to its lowest level since 2012. All of this led to a risk-off appetite and for investors to seek the perceived safety of Treasurys. Meanwhile, it was reported that trade talks between the U.S. and China were in their final stages and that U.S. representatives would fly to China next week, but it was also reported that China may try to pull back some concessions. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: February Housing Starts (1225k, 1230k); Wednesday: March Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (132.0, 131.4); Thursday: 4Q GDP Annualized (2.4%, 2.6%), March 23 Initial Jobless Claims (225k, 221k); Friday: February Personal Income (0.3%, -0.1%), January Personal Spending (0.3%, -0.5%), March MNI Chicago PMI (61.0, 64.7), February New Home Sales (620k, 607k), March Final U. of Mich. Sentiment (97.8, 97.8).
Posted on Monday, March 25, 2019 @ 8:12 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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