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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended February 8, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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U.S. government bond prices rose last week on strong demand and weak economic data out of Europe. In the U.S., the January reading of the ISM non-manufacturing index missed expectations as the government shutdown weighed on sentiment but still signaled expansion, declining from 58.0 in December to 56.7. In Europe, German manufacturing orders and industrial production both fell unexpectedly in December and the European Union cut its forecast for economic growth in the area from 1.9% in 2019 to 1.3%, pushing U.S. government bond prices higher. Meanwhile, fears lingered that the U.S. and China will not reach a trade deal ahead of a March 1 deadline after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said a deal was a "pretty sizable distance" away. Following the March 1 deadline, suspensions on certain tariff increases will be lifted. At the end of last week, Fed funds futures implied nearly a nearly 0% chance that the Fed will raise rates in 2019, down from about 30% only two weeks prior. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Wednesday: January CPI MoM (0.1%, -0.1%), February 8 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -2.5%); Thursday: February 9 Initial Jobless Claims (225k, 234k), December Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.1%, 0.2%), January PPI Final Demand MoM (0.1%, -0.2%); Friday: February Preliminary U. of Mich. Sentiment (93.9, 91.2), January Industrial Production MoM (0.1%, 0.3%), February Empire Manufacturing (7.5, 3.9).
Posted on Monday, February 11, 2019 @ 8:24 AM • Post Link Share: 
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