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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Dec. 20, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Last week's economic news was mixed and bonds see-sawed with the reports. However, U.S. Government debt demand has generally been weaker as the risk-on equity rally has reduced safe haven demand which had resulted in generally higher yields the last few weeks. On Tuesday, both Industrial Production and Housing Starts were seen increasing in the month of November. The former posted the largest monthly gain since 2017 in November, as the end to the GM strike resulted in a strong rebound in auto production. Even excluding the improvement in auto production, November experienced an improvement in both industrial production and manufacturing. Consumer good production popped 2.1% as well. Housing starts increased 3.2% in November ahead of expectations and up 13.6% year-over-year. Single-family starts were the primary driver of this strength. On Wednesday, the reported existing home sales fell 1.7% from the prior month but were up 2.7% versus a year ago. Median prices rose in the reported data too. At the end of last week, Real GDP Growth for Q3 was unrevised at 2.1% annualized growth. November personal income was reported rising 0.5% in November and disposable income was up 0.5% as well. Consumer prices registered a 0.2% rise. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming holiday-shortened week include Monday: November preliminary Durable Goods Orders (1.5%, 0.5%) and November New Home Sales (730K, 733K); Thursday: December 21 Initial Jobless Claims (220k, 234k) and December 20 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -5.0%).
Posted on Monday, December 23, 2019 @ 8:48 AM • Post Link Share: 
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