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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Nov.15, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
Last week ended with the October industrial production report meaningfully disappointing, which helped Treasurys stage a week-end rally.; However, through the course of last week, the yield curve flattened but is meaningfully steeper than it was a short few months ago. As of the end of Friday, the 2-year was yielding 1.610% and the 10-year was yielding 1.831%. Contrasted to the August 15 close, which saw the 2-year yielding 1.496% and the 10-year yielding 1.527%, it is evident that the yield curve has steepened. This and the lowered trade tensions have helped fuel a risk rally which has recently depressed demand for Treasuries, a safe-haven asset. While ISM readings have been weak, employment remains strong and the consumer continues to spend. The Friday retail sales data was the latest reading of consumer spending available and showed an October bounce-back after September saw a decline; the first in seven months. "Core" sales, which exclude autos, building materials, and gas stations (the most volatile sectors) grew 0.2% in October, and are up 4.2% from a year ago and 7.8% at an annualized rate since the start of 2019, the fastest ten-month pace of growth since December 1999. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: October Housing Starts (1,315k, 1,256k); Wednesday: November 15 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 9.6%); Thursday: November 16 Initial Jobless Claims (219k, 225k), October Leading Index (-0.2%, -0.1%) and October Existing Home Sales (5.49m, 5.38m); Friday: November preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (51.5, 51.3) and November final University of Michigan Sentiment (95.7, unch.).
Posted on Monday, November 18, 2019 @ 8:16 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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