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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended January 25, 2019
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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U.S. Treasury note yields fell early in the week on weak economic data out of China. In 2018, China's economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly three decades. Treasury note yields continued to fall on Thursday as investors favored safe haven investments after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stated the eurozone's outlook has shifted to the downside, further fueling uncertainty in the global economy. Housing data released on Thursday stated U.S. existing home sales fell 10.3% from a year ago. The decline in sales can be attributed to mortgage rates increasing and new tax regulations capping state and local deductions. Treasury notes yields pushed higher on Friday as the United States President Donald Trump announced a temporary deal to re-open the government. Even though the agreement is for only three weeks, this alleviates some uncertainty moving forward. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: November Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.5%, 0.8%), November New Home Sales (567k, 544k), November Construction Spending MoM (0.2%, -0.1%), November Factory Orders (0.3%, -2.1%), November Final Durable Goods Orders (0.8%, 0.8%), November Trade Balance (-$54.0b, -$55.5b), December Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.1%, 0.2%), December Housing Starts (1253k, 1256k); Tuesday: December Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM (N/A, N/A), January Conference Board Consumer Confidence (124.8, 128.1), December Preliminary Durable Goods Orders (1.5%, N/A), December New Home Sales (575k, N/A), November Final Inventories MoM (N/A, N/A); Wednesday: January 25 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -2.7%), January ADP Employment Change (180k, 271k), 4Q A GDP Annualized QoQ (2.6%, 3.4%), January 30 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (2.50%, 2.50%); Thursday: December Personal Income (0.5%, 0.2%), December Person; Friday: January Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (160k, 312k), January Unemployment Rate (3.9%, 3.9%), January Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI (54.9, 54.9), January ISM Manufacturing (54.3, 54.1), December Construction Spending MoM (N/A, N/A), January Final University of Michigan Sentiment (90.7, 90.7).
Posted on Monday, January 28, 2019 @ 8:12 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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