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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended September 21, 2018
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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The yield curve steepened last week, and Treasury yields moved higher across all maturities with the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury rising above 3%. Selling in U.S. government bonds accelerated on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said about $200 billion of Chinese imports would be taxed at 10% effective September 24, lower than the initial rate expected to be as high as 25%. However, the rate will likely rise to 25% at the end of 2018. New issues of corporate debt also contributed to the selling in Treasury's. In economic data, initial jobless claims were 201,000 for the week ended September 15, which was less than the consensus estimate of 210,000 and 3,000 claims less than the previous week's level. According to the Labor Department, the September 15 level of initial claims is the lowest since November 15, 1969 when it was 197,000. This week, the Federal Open Market meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and is widely expected to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: September Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (132.0, 133.4); Wednesday: September 26 FOMC Rate Decision – Upper Bound (2.25%, 2.00%), September 21 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 1.6%), August New Home Sales (630k, 627k); Thursday: September 22 Initial Jobless Claims (209k, 201k), 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ (4.2%, 4.2%), August Preliminary Durable Goods Orders (1.9%, -1.7%), August Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.3%, 0.6%); Friday: September Final U. of Mich. Sentiment (100.5, 100.8), August Personal Income (0.4%, 0.3%), August Personal Spending (0.3%, 0.4%), September Chicago Purchasing Manager (62.0, 63.6).

Posted on Monday, September 24, 2018 @ 8:15 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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