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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended August 10, 2018
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury prices rose over the course of the week on trade fears and a weak inflation report. Treasury prices started the week lower as equities rose significantly on Tuesday with Asian markets leading the way and causing investors to seek a more risk-on trade. The Trump administration also announced that it was re-imposing many sanctions on Iran that would go into effect Tuesday night as they try to increase pressure on Iran to halt their nuclear program. However, the risk-on trade was reversed over the rest of the week as investors preferred the perceived safety of Treasuries. Thursday's unchanged inflation reading was weaker than the analyst expectations of a 0.2% rise, which supported the buying of Treasuries.  On Friday, President Donald Trump announced increased tariffs on Turkey in response to geopolitical tensions regarding Turkey's detention of an American. This action increased fears of an economic crisis in Turkey and investors fled to the perceived safety of Treasuries. Investors also are still weighing fears of the trade war with China due to more strong comments from President Trump. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Wednesday: August 10 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -3.0%), August Empire Manufacturing (20.0, 22.6), July Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.1%, 0.5%), July Industrial Production MoM (0.3%, 0.6%); Thursday: August 11 Initial Jobless Claims (215k, 213k), July Housing Starts (1.26m, 1.173m); Friday: July Leading Index (0.4%, 0.5%), August Prelim. U. of Michigan Sentiment (98.0, 97.9).
Posted on Monday, August 13, 2018 @ 8:30 AM • Post Link Share: 
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