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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended April 20, 2018
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

Treasury yields rose across the yield curve last week with the 10-year note reaching the highest level since 2014 on Friday. The spread between the two-year note and 10-year note reached its narrowest since 2007 on Tuesday due to concerns that fiscal policy, through tax cuts coupled with increases in spending, would stall the economy along with the uncertainty surrounding further interest rate hikes. The yield curve widened sharply by the end of the week, easing investor concerns of the yield curve inverting. This was largely a result of commodity prices, such as crude oil, pushing towards multi-year highs subsequently causing higher inflation expectations. The Fed's Beige Book and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, which are also inflation indicators, signaled increases in wages and material costs are forthcoming. Furthermore, after a week of speeches from numerous members of the Federal Reserve, investors believe the central bank will raise rates an additional three times this year. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Monday: April Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (55.2, 55.6), March Existing Home Sales (5.55m, 5.54m); Tuesday: March New Home Sales (630k, 618k), April Conference Board Consumer Confidence (126.0, 127.7); Wednesday: April 20 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, 4.9%); Thursday: April 21 Initial Jobless Claims (230k, 232k), March Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.6%, 1.0%), March Preliminary Durable Goods Orders (1.5%, 3.0%); Friday: 1Q Advanced GDP Annualized QoQ (2.0%, 2.9%), April Final University of Michigan Sentiment (98.0, 97.8).
Posted on Monday, April 23, 2018 @ 8:27 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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