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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended November 23, 2018
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
Treasury prices were mixed over the course of the week with long-term Treasury prices rising slightly and short-term Treasury prices dropping slightly. Investors believe the Federal Reserve is even more likely to raise rates at the December meeting as the market implied probability of a rate hike increased from 66% to 73%. However, a sell-off in the equity markets led by concerns over U.S. technology company earnings and a slowdown in global growth caused investors to seek the perceived safety of Treasuries, leading Treasury prices to remain steady. Homebuilder confidence dropped, and housing starts only met expectations. In Europe, Italy clashed with the European Commission in Brussels as Italian officials said their budget would remain intact, but they would be willing to make some changes to appease Brussels. Investors also believed that the concern that tariffs would negatively impact the economy through decreased investment spending was evident in the 4.4% drop in durable goods orders. Oil dropped 11% over the course of the week on concerns for weak demand out of China and oversupply coming from the U.S. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: November Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (135.5, 137.9); Wednesday: November 23 MBA Mortgage Applications (n/a, -0.1%), October Prelim. Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.4%, 0.4%), 3Q Second GDP Annualized QoQ (3.5%, 3.5%), October New Home Sales (580k, 553k); Thursday: October Personal Income (0.4%, 0.2%), October Personal Spending (0.4%, 0.4%), November 24 Initial Jobless Claims (220k, 224k); Friday: November Chicago Purchasing Manager (58.8, 58.4).
Posted on Monday, November 26, 2018 @ 8:28 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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