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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended November 16, 2018
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

 
U.S. Treasury note yields dropped early in the week as investors favored safe haven assets. The bond markets are digesting uncertainty from numerous sources. The Italian government refused to revise their deficit target per the European Commission's request. In the United Kingdom, key Brexit ministers, including Prime Minister May's chief Brexit negotiator, resigned regarding the Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan. Investors question whether the resignations could undermine confidence in Prime Minister May's position. Lastly, in the United States, the Treasury is selling large amounts of U.S. backed debt as the tax cuts have enlarged the Federal deficit. Last week saw a handful of economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in October, meeting consensus estimates. The CPI is up 2.5% from a year ago. Real average hourly earnings, which is adjusted for inflation, declined 0.1% in October, but are up 0.7% in the past year. Retail sales grew 0.8% in October, beating expectations. Retail sales rose the most in five months, bouncing back from September's hurricane-related decline. Industrial production rose 0.1% in October, versus the consensus expected gain of 0.2%. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts, prior data) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: October Housing Starts (67, 68); Wednesday: November 16 MBA Mortgage Applications (N/A, -3.2%), October Preliminary Durable Goods Orders (-2.6%, 0.7%), November 17 Initial Jobless Claims (215k, 216k), October Existing Home Sales (5.20m, 5.15m), November Final University of Michigan Sentiment (98.3, 98.3); Friday: November Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI (55.8, 55.7).
Posted on Monday, November 19, 2018 @ 8:02 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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