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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended August 4, 2017
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

Long term Treasury prices rose slightly and as short term Treasury prices dropped slightly over the course of the week on mixed economic reports and increased demand for government debt. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell moderately from last month and came in slightly below expectations on Tuesday while personal Income was flat as well. ADP Employment change was up over last month but still less than estimates on Thursday, while Initial Jobless Claims were in line with last week and expectations. Investors have also been skeptical that President Trump's pro-growth agenda items would be passed after efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act failed. This tempered investors' expectations for inflation, which many have speculated may cause the Federal Reserve to be less aggressive with rate hikes. On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that the $4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet unwinding process would be "nice and easy" and that it would take about four years to be reduced to a reasonable size. On Friday, after three straight days of lower yields, better than expected Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and a slight uptick in average hourly earnings caused yields to rebound slightly. Overall, the market implied probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the September Fed meeting was down slightly from the start of the week but still 94.4%. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts; prior data) for the upcoming week include: Wednesday: August 4 MBA Mortgage Applications, June Final Wholesale Inventories (0.6%, 0.6% MoM); Thursday: August 5 Initial Jobless Claims (240k), July PPI Final Demand (0.1%, 0.1% MoM, 2.2%, 2.0% YoY); Friday: July CPI Final Demand (0.2%, 0.0% MoM, 1.8%, 1.6% YoY).
Posted on Monday, August 7, 2017 @ 8:33 AM • Post Link Share: 
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