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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended July 28, 2017
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury yields rose sharply early last week as stocks hit new highs and commodities soared. Crude oil prices rose throughout the week after Saudi Arabia and Nigeria vowed to cut exports. Investors viewed the rise in oil and other commodities as a signal of elevated inflation expectations and reduced their fixed income holdings accordingly. Consumer confidence rose more than expected in June resulting in further selling of safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve held their two-day meeting last week and investors analyzed the wording of the accompanying statement for indications of the Fed's assessment of inflationary pressures and economic growth. Traders viewed the Fed statement as slightly dovish due to the language used to describe inflation running below 2% and the term "relatively soon" used to describe the appropriate timing to shrink its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Bond prices rose on the heels of the Fed statement release. Yields subsequently rebounded Thursday after strong economic data gave investors more confidence in growth and inflation. Wage growth remains subdued with the employment cost index rising less than expected Friday. Major economic reports (related consensus forecasts; prior data) for the upcoming week include: Monday: July Chicago Purchasing Manager (60.0, 65.7); Tuesday: June Personal Income (0.4%, 0.4%), June Personal Spending (0.1%, 0.1%), July ISM Manufacturing (56.4, 57.8); Wednesday: July ADP Employment Change (190k, 158k); Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (240k, 244k), June Factory Orders (2.8%, -0.8%), June Durable Goods Orders (6.0%, 6.5%); Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (180k, 222k).
Posted on Monday, July 31, 2017 @ 8:18 AM • Post Link Share: 
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