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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended July 1, 2016
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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10-year Treasury note yields have fallen to near all-time record lows set in 2012 as markets digest the impact of Britain's positive vote on the referendum to withdraw from the European Union. Futures, according to Bloomberg, are now pricing in a greater than 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged until December of 2017. Gold was up during last week as investors sought safe assets. Last week's real GDP growth reading was released on Tuesday and was revised up to a 1.1% annual rate versus a prior estimate of 0.8% and original estimate of 0.5% versus consensus expectations of 1.0%. The largest positive contributions to the real GDP growth rate in Q1 came from consumer spending and home building. The weakest component of real GDP growth was business investment. On Wednesday, the May Personal Income numbers showed a .2% increase for the month which was slightly below expectations. Consumer prices were shown to increase .2% for the month overall and "real" consumption rose .3%. May Personal Spending was also reported and was shown to rise .4% which was in-line with expectations. Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for the upcoming holiday shortened week include: Tuesday: May Factory Orders (-.9%, -2.8%) and May final Durable Goods Orders (-2.2%, unchanged); Wednesday: July 1st MBA Mortgage Applications and May Trade Balance (-$40B, -$2.6B) Thursday: June ADP Employment Change (156K) and prior week Initial Jobless Claims (265K, -3K); Friday: June Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (175K) and June Unemployment Rate (4.8%, +.1%).
Posted on Tuesday, July 5, 2016 @ 8:17 AM • Post Link Share: 
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