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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended July 22, 2016
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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The Treasury market had a pretty quiet week after the coup attempt in Turkey and upbeat economic data in the U.S. that caused prices to finish slightly lower. Treasury prices rose over the prior weekend as a military coup attempt in Turkey broke out Friday afternoon. However, the attempt was thwarted and things stabilized, causing Treasury prices to open on Monday only slightly higher than Friday. Throughout the week, several economic reports were positive, including: strong housing starts, strong existing home sales, better than expected earnings from technology companies and lower than expected initial jobless claims. This caused a slight increase in the market implied probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the meetings later this year, but probability for an increase in rates at next week's meeting stayed at 8%. Somewhat mitigating the drop in Treasury prices were poor economic reports in Europe and continuing uncertainty surrounding the European Union after the Brexit, causing investors to seek the safety of U.S. Treasuries, along with a 4% drop in oil prices. Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for the upcoming week include: Monday: July Prelim. Markit US Manufacturing PMI (51.5); Tuesday: July Consumer Confidence Index (95.5), June New Home Sales (560,000); Wednesday: July 22 MBA Mortgage Applications, June Prelim. Durable Goods Orders (-1.1%), July 27 FOMC Rate Decision (0.50% Upper Bound); Thursday: July 23 Initial Jobless Claims (265,000); Friday: 2Q Annualized GDP (2.6% QoQ), 2Q Annualized Personal Consumption (4.3%), July Chicago Purchasing Manager (54.0), July Final U. of Michigan Sentiment (90.0).
Posted on Monday, July 25, 2016 @ 7:56 AM • Post Link Share: 
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