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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended July 8, 2016
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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The Treasury yield curve flattened over the course of the week as short-term yields rose on strong jobs numbers and increased expectations of a rake hike. Yields began the week plunging to all-time lows on Tuesday as fears over the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union re-emerged and caused investors to seek the perceived safety of government debt, with long-term yields falling the most. Treasury yields then rebounded slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, which the exception of the 30-year yield dropping slightly both days. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims fell to a 3-month low and private-sector employment picked up slightly in June. The official jobs report on Friday significantly beat expectations, which renewed suggestions that the economy is growing at a moderate pace and the Federal Reserve may revisit increasing interest rates sooner than expected. Short-term treasury yields rose as they are most sensitive to changes in the federal-funds rate, however, long-term treasury yields fell. Oil also dropped 8% throughout the week. Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: May Wholesale Inventories (0.2% MoM); Wednesday: July 8th MBA Mortgage Applications; Thursday: July 9th Initial Jobless Claims (265,000), June PPI Final Demand (0.3% MoM, -0.1% YoY); Friday: June Retail Sales Advance (0.1% MoM), June CPI (0.2% MoM, 1.1% YoY), July Empire Manufacturing (5.00), June Industrial Production (0.2% MoM), July Preliminary U. of Michigan Sentiment (93.0).
Posted on Monday, July 11, 2016 @ 7:56 AM • Post Link Share: 
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