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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Ended Nov. 25, 2016
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary

Treasury prices mostly fell, with the exception of the 10- year and 30-year Treasuries, over the course of the week on expectations from the new administration and strong economic reports. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates at the December 14th meeting as the market implied probability of a rake hike is 100%. Short-term Treasuries started out the week mostly stable on Monday and Tuesday, while long-term Treasuries rose slightly as investors have struggled to value bonds in the uncertainty of the policies of the new Trump administration. Expectations of a tax cut along with increased infrastructure spending have led investors to believe higher deficits will lead to increased supply in Treasury bonds and higher inflation. On Wednesday, Treasury prices fell sharply as durable goods orders and consumer sentiment were both much higher than anticipated, overshadowing weak new-home sales and poor jobless claims numbers. Treasury prices remained stable in Friday's abbreviated session as investors weighed new uncertainty coming from France's election along with the future of the European Central Bank's bond-buying program. Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for the upcoming week include: Tuesday: 3Q Second Annualized GDP (3.0%), 3Q Second Personal Consumption (2.3%), November Consumer Confidence Index (101.3); Wednesday: November 25 MBA Mortgage Applications, November ADP Employment Change (160,000), October Persona Income (0.4%), October Personal Spending (0.5%), November Chicago Purchasing Manager (52.0), October Pending Home Sales (0.1% MoM); Thursday: November 26 Initial Jobless Claims (253,000), November Final Markit US Manuf. PMI (53.9), October Construction Spending (0.6% MoM), November ISM Manufacturing (52.2); Friday: November Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (175,000), November Unemployment Rate (4.9%).
Posted on Monday, November 28, 2016 @ 8:01 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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