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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Week Ended May 9, 2014
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasury movements were mixed this week as the yield curve steepened the most since September amid mixed economic data and a speech by Janet Yellen affirming a commitment to gradual increases in interest rates. On Monday, yields spiked when reports showed that service industries expanded at their fastest pace in eight months. The April ISM Non-Manf. Composite was reported at 55.2, ahead of estimates for a 54 reading, and Markit US PMIs also showed expansion. On Tuesday, the March Trade Balance was reported at $-40.4B, and Treasuries rose ahead of a speech by Janet Yellen planned for Wednesday. In that speech, Yellen stated that a "high degree" of accommodation would be needed, tempering investor's expectations for any accelerated time table for interest rate increases. On Thursday, long term Treasuries fell and shorter term Treasuries gained as a government auction of $16B in 30 year debt drew weak demand. On Friday, the spread between long and short dated government debt continued to widen as March wholesale inventories were reported to have risen 1.1% vs. .5% expectations. Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for the upcoming week include: Monday: April Monthly Budget Statement ($114B); Tuesday: April Advance Retail Sales (+.4% MoM) and April Import Price Index (+.3% MoM); Wednesday: April PPI Final Demand (+.2%) and PPI Ex Food & Energy (+1.4% YoY); Thursday: May Empire Manufacturing (6.00), April CPI (+.3% MoM), April Industrial Production (+0%), and April Capacity Utilization (79.1%); Friday: April Housing Starts (918K, +3.7% MoM), Building Permits (1014K, +1.7% MoM), and Univ of Michigan Confidence (84.5).
Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 @ 8:26 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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