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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Week Ended February 8, 2013
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasuries lifted higher this week amidst volatility in equity markets and mixed economic data. Yields fell on Monday in "risk off" trading as U.S. December Factory orders rose 1.8%, missing expectations, and the January ISM New York survey was reported at 56.7. Tuesday marked a reversal of course when European stocks rallied and Treasuries declined, with the 10 year closing at around a 2 percent yield. On Wednesday, Treasuries rallied modestly and the U.S. Treasury called on Congress to pass a longer term debt limit while announcing plans to sell $72B of notes and bonds next week. Robert Shiller, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index was also quoted as saying that he sees no "major rally" in U.S. housing values. On Thursday, yields were relatively unchanged amid a choppy trading session and mixed economic data. Q4 Nonfarm Productivity fell -2%, missing expectations for a -1.4% decline. Q4 Unit Labor costs also grew 4.5%,150 bps greater than expected while December Consumer Credit expanded to $14.59B. On Friday, Treasuries fell intraday, but ultimately moved higher, sending yields down, when reports showed that the U.S. Trade Deficit was -$38.5B in December against expectations of -$46B. Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for next week include: Tuesday: January Monthly Budget Statement (-$2B); Wednesday: January Import Price Index (.8% MoM), January Advance Retail Sales (.1%), and Dec. Business Inventories (.3%) Friday: February Empire Manufacturing (-2.00), January Industrial Production (.2%), January Capacity Utilization (78.9%), and February Preliminary U. of Michigan Confidence (74.8)

Posted on Monday, February 11, 2013 @ 10:17 AM • Post Link Share: 
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These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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