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Bob Carey
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  US Economy and Credit Markets Week Ended December 21, 2012
Posted Under: Weekly Market Commentary
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Treasuries were mostly lower this week as positive U.S. economic data and apparent progress in Fiscal Cliff negotiations reduced demand for the safety of government debt. Yields were higher on Monday as investors speculated that leaders in Washington were making progress on budget talks, even as Dec. Empire Manufacturing was reported at – 8.1, missing expectations of -1. Tuesday, treasuries slid further, with the 30 year yield touching a 3-month high of 3% as investors continued to believe that talks between president Barack Obama and Republican Speaker John Boehner would yield progress and prevent recession, according to Bloomberg. That optimism faded on Wednesday when the White House threatened to veto a Republican budget plan sending treasuries higher. Also on Wednesday, November housing starts were reported at 861K vs. a 872K survey, while building permits were 899K, beating an 875K expectation. On Thursday, treasuries pared gains as revised readings showed U.S. GDP rose 3.1% in Q3 vs. 2.7% previously estimated and November Existing Home Sales rose 5.9% MoM to 5.04M. Friday treasuries rallied to close the week when Republican leaders scrapped plans to allow tax increases on higher income earners. Major economic reports (and related consensus forecasts) for next week include: Monday: Oct. S&P/CS 20 City MoM/YoY% (.48% and 4%, respectively); Thursday: Dec. Consumer Confidence (70), Nov. New Home Sales and MoM% (380K and 3.3%, respectively); Friday: Dec. Chicago PMI (51), Nov. Pending Home Sales MoM/ YoY% (1% and 10.6%, respectively).
Posted on Monday, December 24, 2012 @ 9:49 AM • Post Link Share: 
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