Existing Home Sales Increased 1.2% in February
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Implications: Nothing shows the Plow Horse Economy better than housing. Sales of existing homes increased 1.2% in February, and the underlying fundamentals are slowly but surely improving. Sales have gained on a year-to-year basis for five consecutive months and are now up 4.7% from a year ago. And this gain comes in the face of a drop in distressed and all-cash-sales. Distressed homes (foreclosures and short sales) now account for only 11% of total sales, down from 16% a year ago. All-cash buyers are down to 26% of sales from a high of 35% in February 2014. As a result, even though total sales are up 4.7% from a year ago, non-cash sales (where the buyer uses a mortgage loan) are up 19.2%. What this means is that when distressed and all-cash sales eventually bottom out, total sales will start rising at a more rapid pace. So even though credit (but, not liquidity) remains relatively tight, we see evidence of a thaw, which suggests overall sales will climb at a faster pace in the year ahead. What's interesting is that the percentage of buyers using credit has increased as the Fed tapered and then ended QE. Those predicting a housing crash without more QE were completely wrong. One of the reasons for the tepid recovery in existing home sales so far is a lack of inventory. Inventories are down 0.5% from a year ago and remain at very depressed levels relative to history. However, the median sales price of an existing home rose to $202,600 in February, up 7.5% from a year ago. As a result, in the year ahead, we expect the higher level of home prices to bring more sellers into the market, which should help generate additional sales. Either way, whether existing home sales are up or down, it's important to remember these data, by themselves, should not change anyone's impression about the overall economy. Existing home sales contribute almost zero to GDP, which counts "new" production, not re-sales of old property.

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Posted on Monday, March 23, 2015 @ 11:02 AM

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.