Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  No Recession in Sight
Posted Under: Bullish • Employment

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since mid-October. These are not recessionary numbers, on the contrary they show an economy that is continuing to improve. All the pouting pundits of pessimism can't figure it out.

Jobless claims fell by 18,000 for the week ending March 5th to 259,000, almost matching the four-decade low set in July of 255,000. Sometimes there are statistical issues where some states have to be estimated throwing the numbers off, but the Department of Labor said no states were estimated and nothing was unusual in the data.

To smooth out some of the week to week volatility, the four week average is used and that fell to 267,500, the best reading since November.

This measure is a wonderful leading indicator for the state of employment and the economy for that matter. Weekly claims have remained below 300,000 now for 53 consecutive weeks. It doesn't get much better than this!

Although the media continually screams recession, the data continue to tell a much different story. Stay the course. The US economy is just fine.

Posted on Thursday, March 10, 2016 @ 1:36 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.