Home   Logon   Mobile Site   Research and Commentary   About Us   Call 1.800.621.1675 or Email Us       Follow First Trust: 

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Click for Bio
Follow Brian on Twitter Follow Brian on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Click for Bio
Follow Bob on Twitter Follow Bob on LinkedIn View Videos on YouTube
 
  The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $41.5 Billion in September
Posted Under: Data Watch • Trade

 
Implications: The trade deficit came in much smaller than the consensus expected in September and was revised smaller for August. As a result, and in combination with other recent revisions to data on inventories and construction, real GDP growth for the third quarter, originally estimated at 2%, is now tracking 2.9%. We’ll see if that holds next week with more reports on inventories, consumer spending, and business investment in high-tech. The brightest spot in today’s trade report was that exports hit a new record high. However, after climbing 15.9% in the year ending in September 2011, exports are only up 3.5% in the past 12 months. Financial and economic problems in Europe are playing a role in the slowdown in export growth. Exports to the Euro-area are down 6.7% in the past year. However, we also see a similar pattern of slower export growth with Canada, Mexico, and the Pacific Rim (including China). Two notable exceptions, where our export growth has improved or remains strong in the past year, are to the OPEC countries and India. Long-term, beneath the headlines, higher energy production in the US is having large effects on trade with other countries. Real (inflation-adjusted) oil exports have tripled since 2005, while real oil imports are down substantially. In other news this morning, new claims for jobless benefits declined 8,000 last week to 355,000. The four-week moving average is 372,000. Continuing claims fell 135,000 to 3.13 million, the lowest since July 2008. However, the Labor Department says the loss of electricity due to Hurricane Sandy may have temporarily suppressed filings. Expect a temporary spike upward in claims over the next few weeks due to hurricane-related disruptions.

Click here for a PDF version
Posted on Thursday, November 08, 2012 @ 10:56 AM • Post Link Share: 
Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Declined to 54.2 in October
Election Matters, But Stocks are Cheap
Non-Farm Payrolls Increased 171K in Oct, Revisions to Aug/Sep Bring the Net Gain to 255K
The ISM Manufacturing Index Rose to 51.7 in October from 51.5 in September
Nonfarm Productivity Increased at a 1.9% Annual Rate in the 3rd Quarter
Personal Income Increased 0.4% in September, Personal Consumption Rose 0.8%
Velocity, Uncertainty & the Economy
The first estimate for Q3 real GDP growth is 2.0% at an annual rate
New Orders for Durable Goods Jumped 9.9% in September
Fed Doesn't Budge
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Tags
 
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA.
First Trust Advisors L.P.
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan
Copyright © 2014 All rights reserved.